Climate Paradox: Zimbabwe Faces Dual Threat with Erratic 2025/26 Rainy Season, Demanding National Resilience

The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) of Zimbabwe has released the National Climate Outlook Forecast (NACOF) for the 2025/2026 rainfall season, with the 2025/2026 rainfall season is projected to be influenced primarily by a strong trend towards a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a neutral state. This combination is expected to create significant spatial and temporal variability, characterized by a challenging start followed by more favorable conditions.

By Francis S. Bingandadi: Editor

• October and November 2025: Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal. October is forecasted to be the warmest month.
• December 2025: Expected to experience cooler than average maximum temperatures.

Due to the erratic nature of the season, including a late start and significant intra-seasonal variability, stakeholders are urged to implement proactive risk management strategies, including flexible planting schedules and robust water harvesting/conservation programs. The MSD will provide updated monthly forecasts starting from the end of October 2025.

Zimbabwe is however, expected to receive more rains this November reaching a normal to above normal mark in December. The rains are expected to ease in January going forward, the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has revealed during the seasonal outlook presented today.

The 2025/2026 agricultural season in Zimbabwe is predicted to be a high-stakes affair, characterized by a challenging climatic paradox that demands swift operational and national adaptation. According to the latest seasonal forecast, which draws authority from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) and is guided by global monitoring from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the country must prepare for both early-season drought stress and a subsequent mid-season deluge.

This forecast is a critical signal for Zimbabwe's agricultural, disaster management, and water security sectors, demanding immediate activation of climate-smart tools and strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on eventual opportunities.

The season's opening act, covering October and November 2025, is projected to be drier than normal with a distinctly erratic start to the rains. Compounding this moisture deficit will be warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly in the typically hot months leading up to the main rainy season (August to October).

Operational Implications of the Early Drought:

• Delayed Planting and Agricultural Stress: Farmers relying on early season crops will face delayed planting, risking reduced yields and higher input costs. This immediately escalates the need for agricultural extension services to provide guidance on appropriate planting dates, drought-resistant varieties, and conservative tilling practices.
• Water and Energy Security: The early dry, hot conditions will put immediate pressure on dam levels used for hydropower generation and municipal water supply. This necessitates immediate implementation of water rationing measures, public awareness campaigns on water conservation, and the deployment of alternative energy sources where possible.
• Disaster Preparedness: Government agencies must ready resources for early humanitarian assistance in vulnerable rural areas, focusing on securing access to clean water and animal feed.

The forecast indicates a significant shift from December 2025 onwards. Rainfall prospects are expected to improve significantly, leading to conditions that are normal to above-normal for much of the country. This favorable outlook is particularly pronounced from February to April 2026, with good rainfall accumulation expected.

The main season's resilience will be accompanied by a temperature inversion, with cooler-than-average maximum temperatures expected in December, aiding moisture retention and crop development after the initial heat.

• Increased Yields and Food Security: The strong finish to the season suggests the potential for a bumper harvest, provided crops can survive the erratic start. National agricultural planning should focus on post-harvest logistics and storage capacity to efficiently handle the anticipated higher yields and secure the national grain reserve.
• Flood Risk and Infrastructure Management: While favorable for agriculture, heavy rainfall events carry an increased risk of flooding, flash floods, and waterlogging. This poses a threat to road networks, bridges, and housing. Civil protection units must be put on high alert to manage potential flood zones. Infrastructure maintenance and upgrades focusing on better drainage and erosion control are essential. Northern areas, however, will require continued monitoring as they are forecast to potentially see drier conditions later in the season.

The SARCOF forecast, a consensus outlook generated by regional climate experts, underscores the need for enhanced early warning systems and proactive water management strategies. The dual nature of the season—early heat and late moisture—is a stark reminder of the increasing seasonal variability driven by climate change.

For national planners and stakeholders, this forecast is an opportunity to prove the value of climate-informed decision-making. By leveraging climate data, mobile communication, and organizational preparedness, the nation can:

1. Adjust Agricultural Subsidies and Programs: Aligning the distribution of inputs and farmer support to the delayed start of the season.
2. Scale Water Harvesting Initiatives: Directing resources towards communal water storage, check dams, and irrigation infrastructure to mitigate early-season losses and manage late-season surplus.
3. Strengthen Disaster Response: Pre-positioning relief supplies and mobilizing response teams in anticipated flood-prone areas.

In conclusion, Zimbabwe’s 2025/2026 weather story is one of extremes. Successfully navigating this climate paradox requires the nation to move beyond reactive measures and embrace a future where climate modeling and national planning are intrinsically linked.